* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922009 08/22/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 37 42 46 49 51 55 58 60 62 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 37 42 46 49 51 55 58 60 62 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 33 35 37 39 41 44 47 52 58 SHEAR (KT) 14 15 18 18 11 14 13 16 12 8 6 7 10 SHEAR DIR 69 76 80 93 92 65 82 76 97 64 69 52 130 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 144 142 139 138 137 136 136 137 138 139 142 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 57 59 52 50 45 46 50 52 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -8 -2 9 15 20 44 44 57 64 54 48 35 200 MB DIV 25 17 11 31 35 -1 4 5 16 16 17 31 33 LAND (KM) 2167 2066 1966 1865 1764 1547 1331 1139 958 801 688 605 559 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.5 15.3 15.0 14.7 14.4 14.1 LONG(DEG W) 135.4 136.3 137.2 138.1 139.0 141.0 143.0 144.9 146.9 148.9 150.7 152.4 154.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 32 16 15 13 12 13 15 12 13 13 18 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 12. 16. 19. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922009 INVEST 08/22/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922009 INVEST 08/22/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY