* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/22/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 87 87 86 78 65 46 32 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 85 87 87 86 77 53 34 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 84 83 79 71 53 47 43 38 33 29 27 DIS SHEAR (KT) 8 7 6 5 8 22 43 71 71 65 63 57 N/A SHEAR DIR 245 219 226 209 214 218 237 254 265 276 254 237 N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.6 26.7 23.5 19.2 18.2 12.7 13.8 14.0 15.1 14.5 14.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 135 124 99 82 81 74 76 75 73 71 70 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 120 110 89 76 77 72 74 72 69 67 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -49.7 -49.5 -50.2 -50.1 -49.5 -49.0 -47.1 -47.3 -48.1 -48.7 -48.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 66 70 68 69 61 52 47 45 39 43 45 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 32 33 35 33 36 34 32 25 25 20 17 17 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 5 9 6 18 8 14 82 89 89 79 60 N/A 200 MB DIV 68 99 125 65 51 55 36 23 31 11 13 35 N/A LAND (KM) 695 625 431 354 167 22 227 1106 1032 410 213 43 N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.1 36.2 38.2 40.1 42.0 46.2 49.5 50.9 51.2 52.5 55.5 57.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.5 68.4 68.2 66.8 65.3 59.8 50.2 38.0 25.2 16.3 12.0 6.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 21 20 22 25 33 38 40 34 22 19 17 N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 28 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 19 CX,CY: -2/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -7. -16. -25. -33. -40. -45. -48. -50. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 18. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -21. -23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -7. -7. -11. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 1. -7. -20. -39. -53. -68. -81. -89. -96. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/22/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/22/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY