* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112009 08/22/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 36 40 43 45 48 51 51 50 51 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 36 40 43 45 48 51 51 50 51 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 34 36 37 37 39 40 42 43 SHEAR (KT) 13 15 12 9 11 15 19 21 13 15 19 15 13 SHEAR DIR 66 77 83 78 49 41 51 75 78 76 75 87 92 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 144 143 142 140 138 138 137 135 135 135 134 135 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 60 57 61 60 61 56 55 52 55 50 51 47 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 8 7 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -3 4 13 15 13 24 25 40 32 39 27 35 200 MB DIV 6 20 39 48 33 38 2 11 31 13 46 26 24 LAND (KM) 2066 1986 1907 1813 1720 1553 1372 1202 1047 907 780 659 549 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.3 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 136.4 137.2 137.9 138.8 139.6 141.1 142.8 144.4 145.9 147.4 148.9 150.4 151.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 36 25 14 16 15 13 13 16 14 12 13 12 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 18. 21. 21. 20. 21. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 ELEVEN 08/22/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 ELEVEN 08/22/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY