* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/23/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 70 68 64 54 41 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 72 70 68 64 50 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 70 64 59 56 47 43 38 32 28 25 25 DIS SHEAR (KT) 7 6 12 15 19 45 70 83 68 50 28 14 N/A SHEAR DIR 226 240 228 232 237 249 261 270 274 247 212 184 N/A SST (C) 26.8 23.5 18.8 18.1 18.0 12.9 14.4 14.0 15.0 14.7 14.3 13.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 99 81 80 81 75 76 75 74 71 71 69 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 88 76 76 77 73 74 72 70 68 67 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -50.4 -50.5 -50.1 -50.5 -50.8 -48.9 -48.1 -47.6 -47.1 -45.7 -45.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 70 73 67 60 51 49 43 45 42 48 64 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 34 32 34 34 32 30 26 27 23 21 20 17 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 3 11 12 0 21 90 124 116 99 85 150 N/A 200 MB DIV 87 52 80 96 57 18 7 50 22 34 47 51 N/A LAND (KM) 434 328 169 83 46 306 1184 1039 338 43 40 409 N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.1 40.1 42.0 44.0 46.0 49.2 50.2 51.2 52.7 55.2 58.6 62.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.4 67.2 65.9 62.6 59.3 48.9 36.8 25.3 15.2 8.7 5.7 3.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 22 26 31 35 38 38 34 27 20 19 18 N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 21 CX,CY: 4/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -8. -11. -19. -25. -31. -35. -39. -41. -43. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -6. -10. -10. -10. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 18. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. -21. -24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. -26. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -11. -21. -34. -47. -62. -72. -78. -86. -94. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/23/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/23/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY