* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/23/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 40 41 44 47 50 54 55 58 60 62 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 40 41 44 47 50 54 55 58 60 62 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 40 41 43 45 46 47 48 50 53 57 SHEAR (KT) 11 13 16 16 16 13 19 16 14 17 11 9 6 SHEAR DIR 69 64 56 59 60 40 55 55 58 51 72 63 74 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 141 141 139 139 137 137 137 135 136 138 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 60 59 63 61 60 61 60 65 62 58 47 49 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 5 11 7 6 10 28 19 40 35 38 41 64 54 200 MB DIV 34 31 37 34 44 20 15 34 32 39 34 32 31 LAND (KM) 1900 1811 1722 1634 1546 1371 1183 1015 880 760 644 566 507 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.5 14.8 14.8 14.7 14.7 14.9 14.9 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 138.1 139.0 139.8 140.6 141.4 143.0 144.8 146.6 148.2 149.7 151.1 152.3 153.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 13 15 14 13 14 16 18 21 14 15 13 15 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 12. 15. 19. 20. 23. 25. 27. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/23/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/23/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY