* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932009 08/23/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 36 45 54 61 62 61 58 53 46 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 36 45 54 61 62 61 58 53 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 41 44 44 41 36 31 SHEAR (KT) 21 19 20 20 18 13 11 6 6 8 12 21 21 SHEAR DIR 22 38 44 43 40 58 62 76 286 279 235 252 261 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.6 27.4 26.1 24.7 23.2 22.3 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 160 162 161 160 157 151 139 126 111 95 85 80 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.8 -51.1 -51.7 -50.9 -51.5 -51.1 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 77 77 77 78 76 75 73 69 73 65 62 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 10 8 9 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -10 1 14 32 44 54 62 55 45 25 -15 -39 200 MB DIV 52 51 52 65 77 48 25 31 34 17 10 13 -1 LAND (KM) 692 717 754 797 852 839 876 956 1057 1154 1218 1312 1330 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.8 15.3 16.2 17.2 18.1 19.2 20.5 22.2 23.7 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 107.5 108.6 109.7 110.8 111.8 113.7 115.8 118.1 120.6 123.1 125.4 127.3 129.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 70 69 62 53 51 48 46 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 21. 26. 28. 28. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 20. 29. 36. 37. 36. 33. 28. 21. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932009 INVEST 08/23/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932009 INVEST 08/23/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED