* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/23/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 64 60 56 45 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 66 64 60 47 42 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 65 60 56 46 45 40 34 29 25 24 24 26 SHEAR (KT) 8 17 21 28 38 57 69 76 66 55 17 17 32 SHEAR DIR 239 237 240 243 253 259 275 288 278 249 237 231 229 SST (C) 23.4 18.8 17.9 17.9 15.3 15.0 13.8 14.5 14.7 14.5 12.6 11.9 12.3 POT. INT. (KT) 99 81 80 81 77 77 75 74 73 72 69 62 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 76 76 77 74 74 72 71 69 69 66 59 60 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -50.8 -51.3 -51.5 -50.9 -49.2 -47.9 -46.2 -45.2 -44.6 -46.3 -47.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 69 64 60 56 53 50 47 50 47 63 66 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 31 30 31 30 30 26 21 18 13 10 11 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR 11 12 8 -26 -22 43 97 146 133 142 112 48 86 200 MB DIV 43 57 77 42 17 34 6 16 29 14 -7 8 56 LAND (KM) 315 142 33 101 -33 746 1421 709 170 80 422 636 559 LAT (DEG N) 40.1 42.3 44.4 46.2 47.9 50.3 51.3 52.2 54.0 57.3 62.3 64.2 63.5 LONG(DEG W) 67.3 65.1 62.9 58.6 54.3 43.0 30.9 20.7 12.6 7.4 4.8 3.9 3.7 STM SPEED (KT) 24 27 30 35 36 39 35 28 23 23 18 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 22 CX,CY: 8/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -9. -13. -20. -25. -30. -33. -36. -38. -39. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -8. -13. -13. -13. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -22. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -8. -10. -15. -18. -17. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -10. -14. -25. -40. -55. -73. -84. -88. -93.-102. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/23/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/23/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED