* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/23/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 45 46 51 54 55 56 57 61 63 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 45 46 51 54 55 56 57 61 63 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 46 47 49 51 52 53 54 56 57 60 SHEAR (KT) 9 12 13 15 13 16 11 15 19 17 14 11 4 SHEAR DIR 71 51 49 60 53 46 51 56 59 59 39 7 339 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 141 141 139 137 136 136 135 137 138 137 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 59 62 58 59 58 61 60 56 54 50 44 42 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 6 5 5 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 11 3 -2 -3 11 3 10 17 30 33 33 41 51 200 MB DIV 35 39 30 20 1 10 18 23 24 22 27 22 6 LAND (KM) 1816 1725 1634 1546 1458 1279 1102 957 817 684 550 482 454 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 138.9 139.8 140.6 141.4 142.2 143.9 145.6 147.1 148.7 150.4 152.4 153.6 154.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 8 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 13 14 19 19 16 13 13 12 15 23 42 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -3. -3. -4. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 21. 23. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/23/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/23/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY