* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932009 08/23/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 39 49 55 62 62 59 54 49 43 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 39 49 55 62 62 59 54 49 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 33 38 42 43 42 37 32 26 SHEAR (KT) 21 20 22 14 7 10 7 6 7 8 19 24 24 SHEAR DIR 45 52 49 46 34 65 78 295 286 231 244 252 250 SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.1 26.7 25.4 23.9 22.6 22.1 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 160 159 155 146 132 119 103 89 83 79 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.5 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 78 76 79 78 77 73 70 72 65 62 60 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 10 9 9 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 5 20 38 42 51 56 54 47 20 15 -18 -38 200 MB DIV 58 65 66 71 39 25 33 36 27 27 35 2 -10 LAND (KM) 751 780 826 869 845 858 936 1013 1143 1225 1335 1416 1416 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.3 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.7 17.6 18.6 19.8 21.3 23.0 24.6 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 110.1 111.1 112.0 112.9 114.9 117.0 119.5 122.1 124.8 127.2 129.4 131.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 13 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 69 58 50 51 45 54 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 6. 14. 21. 25. 27. 26. 25. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 24. 31. 37. 37. 34. 29. 24. 18. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932009 INVEST 08/23/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932009 INVEST 08/23/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY