* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * BILL AL032009 08/23/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 65 58 52 35 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 70 65 51 50 33 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 71 66 61 55 47 40 33 27 28 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 17 19 26 35 49 67 76 75 49 38 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 248 249 255 254 267 295 295 278 246 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 18.3 18.2 18.1 15.7 13.1 14.2 14.3 15.0 14.8 14.7 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 79 80 81 77 75 76 76 75 73 72 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 74 75 76 75 73 74 73 71 69 68 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.6 -51.2 -51.5 -50.8 -49.7 -49.6 -48.2 -48.1 -46.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 59 57 52 46 52 53 52 50 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 32 32 31 31 30 22 22 24 19 18 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 15 0 0 25 93 103 81 81 89 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 84 71 43 34 13 20 6 38 16 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 122 67 30 -3 252 1144 998 266 70 162 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.4 44.2 46.0 47.5 49.0 50.5 50.9 52.7 55.8 59.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.4 62.5 59.5 54.6 49.6 37.4 24.6 14.1 6.5 2.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 28 32 37 38 40 37 30 23 21 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 27 CX,CY: 15/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -4. -8. -12. -16. -24. -30. -35. -39. -42. -44. -44. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -15. -17. -21. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -17. -21. -25. -28. -32. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -8. -7. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -23. -40. -54. -66. -81. -88. -96.-105.-115. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032009 BILL 08/23/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -0.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 59.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032009 BILL 08/23/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY