* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942009 08/23/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 38 43 53 64 72 77 80 81 83 83 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 38 43 53 64 72 77 80 81 83 83 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 50 58 66 71 75 79 SHEAR (KT) 15 15 12 7 12 12 10 9 7 8 10 11 12 SHEAR DIR 51 60 87 58 96 77 79 75 84 52 53 46 19 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 150 149 147 144 141 139 139 139 141 142 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -51.7 -52.1 -52.6 -51.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 59 56 58 59 64 61 59 58 55 54 54 54 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 18 23 39 39 37 44 39 13 8 9 27 28 200 MB DIV 70 70 91 89 102 92 67 70 39 21 20 19 11 LAND (KM) 956 918 888 873 868 858 868 884 931 1001 1052 1135 1237 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.1 11.5 12.1 12.9 13.4 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 152.6 153.5 154.3 155.2 156.1 157.9 159.6 161.1 162.3 163.4 164.5 165.8 167.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 7 6 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 55 56 53 52 52 54 62 52 42 43 50 59 62 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 25. 28. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 13. 18. 28. 39. 47. 52. 55. 56. 58. 58. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942009 INVEST 08/23/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942009 INVEST 08/23/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY