* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/23/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 48 51 54 57 59 60 58 57 56 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 48 51 54 57 59 60 58 57 56 V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 46 47 50 52 53 55 56 58 58 57 SHEAR (KT) 14 14 15 13 15 17 15 13 11 7 12 13 15 SHEAR DIR 58 56 64 58 45 61 42 46 29 343 250 248 215 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 141 140 139 137 136 136 136 138 140 139 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 59 58 60 62 59 60 57 55 46 44 44 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -2 -6 15 23 15 32 31 57 48 68 65 68 200 MB DIV 35 24 28 15 2 5 29 43 43 28 53 37 41 LAND (KM) 1732 1651 1570 1478 1386 1203 1042 884 744 638 553 475 433 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 139.7 140.5 141.2 142.1 142.9 144.7 146.3 148.0 149.7 151.2 152.5 154.0 155.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 14 25 16 18 20 13 14 13 15 37 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 7. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 18. 17. 16. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/23/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/23/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY