* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942009 08/23/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 42 52 62 69 73 76 77 78 78 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 42 52 62 69 73 76 77 78 78 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 49 56 62 68 73 77 SHEAR (KT) 13 11 8 15 13 7 2 5 2 4 5 3 8 SHEAR DIR 55 80 35 92 90 89 146 69 113 81 47 358 341 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 150 150 148 146 142 139 137 135 136 138 139 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.7 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -51.5 -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 57 58 59 63 63 63 62 57 54 54 51 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 21 31 30 37 53 59 57 33 31 37 42 41 200 MB DIV 82 120 91 68 59 87 53 87 55 39 25 7 -1 LAND (KM) 949 912 883 855 838 819 828 832 863 872 870 882 962 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.4 12.0 12.7 13.6 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.6 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 153.1 153.9 154.7 155.6 156.5 158.3 159.9 161.2 162.2 163.0 163.8 164.8 166.3 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 9 9 8 6 5 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 56 55 53 52 53 58 57 47 36 41 40 47 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 27. 37. 44. 48. 51. 52. 54. 53. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942009 INVEST 08/23/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 53.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942009 INVEST 08/23/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY