* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/23/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 54 56 59 60 61 60 63 61 61 60 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 54 56 59 60 61 60 63 61 61 60 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 50 52 53 56 57 58 57 58 60 63 64 SHEAR (KT) 16 16 16 15 18 14 17 16 11 2 4 5 11 SHEAR DIR 56 71 64 51 48 49 30 26 36 81 260 192 194 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 142 141 139 137 136 136 136 138 138 139 138 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.7 -52.6 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 56 56 61 60 58 60 59 61 58 52 42 43 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 9 35 34 33 46 33 39 53 60 71 77 79 200 MB DIV 18 21 22 16 17 30 21 33 37 50 57 41 46 LAND (KM) 1546 1463 1381 1288 1195 1030 860 736 640 540 430 411 465 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.1 14.3 14.4 14.7 15.0 14.9 14.8 14.9 15.3 15.2 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 141.5 142.3 143.1 144.0 144.9 146.5 148.2 149.8 151.3 152.7 154.1 155.6 157.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 22 16 19 18 27 13 14 14 16 21 20 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 8. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 15. 18. 16. 16. 15. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/23/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/23/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY