* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932009 08/23/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 31 37 45 46 43 35 26 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 31 37 45 46 43 35 26 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 32 31 28 25 21 17 DIS SHEAR (KT) 17 9 2 2 4 2 5 12 12 22 20 28 26 SHEAR DIR 50 43 69 73 6 90 285 256 226 230 232 240 265 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.3 26.7 25.2 23.6 22.2 21.5 21.3 20.7 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 158 155 148 132 117 100 85 77 74 67 61 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -51.6 -52.3 -52.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 79 80 78 74 72 68 64 60 59 60 55 48 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 10 10 10 13 12 10 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 35 44 41 36 42 46 62 29 -10 -63 -68 -72 200 MB DIV 66 66 43 30 32 38 34 63 44 38 21 0 -12 LAND (KM) 736 714 711 740 791 845 1000 1095 1177 1162 1014 854 789 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.5 20.6 21.9 23.8 26.0 28.1 29.7 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.5 113.5 114.7 115.9 118.2 121.0 123.7 125.9 127.2 127.8 127.3 127.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 13 12 9 6 3 HEAT CONTENT 52 50 44 47 22 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 636 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 7. 13. 17. 18. 18. 16. 14. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 3. 0. -2. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 12. 20. 21. 18. 10. 1. -5. -12. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932009 INVEST 08/23/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 43.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932009 INVEST 08/23/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY