* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942009 08/24/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 36 40 51 60 66 70 72 73 74 74 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 36 40 51 60 66 70 72 73 74 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 51 57 63 68 72 74 SHEAR (KT) 10 6 13 12 10 4 15 7 8 10 8 11 9 SHEAR DIR 93 79 72 70 79 70 51 93 67 55 46 1 10 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 148 146 142 140 137 135 134 135 137 139 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -51.6 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 58 59 62 63 65 60 59 57 56 47 51 51 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 37 29 34 44 53 29 22 27 39 55 56 61 200 MB DIV 126 84 78 60 85 74 71 54 32 14 24 18 14 LAND (KM) 927 900 882 857 843 839 836 838 852 841 869 915 1011 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.4 11.7 12.4 13.3 14.1 14.7 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 154.7 155.6 156.4 157.3 158.1 159.6 160.9 161.8 162.5 163.0 163.6 164.6 166.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 2 4 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 53 52 50 51 56 60 51 41 42 43 43 47 53 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 26. 35. 41. 45. 47. 48. 49. 49. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942009 INVEST 08/24/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942009 INVEST 08/24/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY