* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/24/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 61 63 66 67 67 68 69 70 70 69 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 61 63 66 67 67 68 69 70 70 69 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 58 60 62 64 64 64 64 65 69 73 76 SHEAR (KT) 17 15 15 15 11 11 22 16 10 2 5 3 1 SHEAR DIR 59 63 53 56 52 30 51 64 85 138 78 278 274 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 139 137 135 135 136 138 139 138 136 135 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 56 57 61 58 55 58 61 58 52 51 49 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 37 32 26 32 34 22 31 32 57 70 85 72 200 MB DIV 29 26 15 18 14 41 43 21 20 32 37 24 28 LAND (KM) 1420 1314 1208 1103 1000 819 675 569 467 416 438 504 577 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 142.7 143.7 144.7 145.7 146.7 148.6 150.4 152.0 153.5 155.0 156.7 158.2 159.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 19 17 17 13 12 15 17 38 18 17 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 16. 17. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/24/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/24/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY