* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942009 08/24/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 39 44 55 62 69 72 75 76 78 78 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 39 44 55 62 69 72 75 76 78 78 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 29 31 37 43 49 55 61 67 73 78 SHEAR (KT) 9 15 17 11 5 10 13 8 8 10 9 10 9 SHEAR DIR 92 52 39 55 44 24 90 46 68 47 43 19 7 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 147 146 144 140 139 137 136 136 138 140 142 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.5 -52.6 -51.8 -51.8 -52.8 -52.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 59 60 64 62 59 57 55 58 52 48 48 45 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 20 15 28 43 39 17 12 9 17 28 38 43 200 MB DIV 74 56 35 72 97 50 56 15 14 1 -1 -7 -11 LAND (KM) 912 884 869 856 853 876 901 915 920 960 1002 1094 1242 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.2 13.0 13.8 14.4 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.0 LONG(DEG W) 156.0 157.0 157.9 158.7 159.5 161.1 162.3 163.3 164.2 164.9 165.7 167.0 169.0 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 6 5 4 3 5 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 51 50 54 61 61 51 33 41 47 53 57 63 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 18. 23. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 19. 30. 37. 44. 47. 50. 51. 53. 53. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942009 INVEST 08/24/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 55.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.4 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942009 INVEST 08/24/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY