* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/24/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 62 63 66 69 72 72 75 75 76 75 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 62 63 66 69 72 72 75 75 76 75 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 61 63 65 66 67 68 69 73 77 80 81 SHEAR (KT) 15 16 16 15 7 14 15 13 12 10 6 6 3 SHEAR DIR 63 53 62 72 63 33 53 65 76 26 54 356 312 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 139 138 137 136 136 138 139 139 137 137 136 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 59 61 60 60 56 56 59 52 50 50 46 50 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 9 8 9 10 12 10 11 10 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 34 29 24 33 44 38 40 46 63 88 83 85 63 200 MB DIV 19 1 7 16 32 29 25 7 17 30 23 26 8 LAND (KM) 1328 1223 1118 1010 904 729 580 482 430 438 478 577 714 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.2 15.1 15.1 15.0 15.0 14.9 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 143.6 144.6 145.6 146.7 147.7 149.6 151.7 153.4 154.8 156.2 157.5 159.1 160.8 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 17 20 12 14 14 18 41 20 17 17 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 11. 14. 17. 17. 20. 20. 21. 20. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/24/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.1 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/24/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY