* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932009 08/24/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 36 43 46 47 45 41 36 31 24 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 36 43 46 47 45 41 36 31 24 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 32 32 31 28 24 21 18 15 SHEAR (KT) 11 6 7 7 9 7 6 8 10 12 16 17 23 SHEAR DIR 52 83 56 88 115 76 146 147 226 249 241 274 264 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.4 26.5 25.3 23.8 22.3 21.6 21.2 20.8 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 146 142 138 129 117 102 86 79 73 67 63 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -50.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 76 72 71 70 73 69 65 63 61 55 53 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 11 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 53 46 52 55 51 66 49 22 -35 -47 -76 -76 200 MB DIV 58 68 65 57 47 41 34 43 41 5 14 -7 -4 LAND (KM) 931 959 997 1034 1063 1168 1250 1267 1279 1195 1024 937 884 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.4 18.2 19.5 21.3 23.6 26.2 28.4 29.8 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 115.2 116.1 117.0 117.9 118.8 121.1 123.3 125.3 126.9 128.1 128.3 128.5 128.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 11 12 12 13 14 12 9 6 3 HEAT CONTENT 47 44 30 11 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 376 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 15. 16. 16. 14. 12. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 18. 21. 22. 20. 16. 11. 6. -1. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932009 INVEST 08/24/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932009 INVEST 08/24/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY