* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942009 08/24/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 42 51 60 66 71 73 75 76 75 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 38 42 51 60 66 71 73 75 76 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 43 50 57 66 73 80 83 SHEAR (KT) 12 17 14 6 8 10 4 3 2 5 3 5 6 SHEAR DIR 62 34 53 38 32 43 56 33 72 120 166 172 189 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 147 146 145 143 141 140 140 141 143 144 146 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 62 61 64 60 57 51 55 53 50 52 47 45 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 7 7 8 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 27 25 24 24 21 7 6 6 22 38 40 42 200 MB DIV 71 37 71 69 52 58 39 18 18 23 14 -6 2 LAND (KM) 953 944 948 959 977 1041 1054 1072 1117 1178 1269 1400 1571 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.3 13.1 13.8 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 158.2 159.1 160.0 160.9 161.7 163.4 164.9 166.1 167.1 168.2 169.4 171.0 173.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 9 7 6 6 5 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 55 65 67 63 55 46 53 60 62 66 72 74 78 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 425 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 11. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 26. 35. 41. 46. 49. 50. 51. 51. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942009 INVEST 08/24/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942009 INVEST 08/24/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY