* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/24/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 57 59 61 62 64 69 70 70 70 68 V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 57 59 61 62 64 69 70 70 70 68 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 58 58 59 61 62 63 65 68 72 73 73 SHEAR (KT) 17 15 16 9 9 15 15 14 7 10 8 10 12 SHEAR DIR 52 53 69 69 60 28 43 77 48 16 355 8 356 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 140 139 137 137 139 140 140 139 139 137 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 60 59 58 58 54 50 49 51 51 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 11 10 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 18 17 31 41 44 33 41 38 62 73 80 73 46 200 MB DIV -12 2 10 22 37 40 36 12 23 37 35 20 -1 LAND (KM) 1200 1104 1009 916 824 669 566 494 446 457 527 612 706 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 14.9 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.8 LONG(DEG W) 144.9 145.9 146.8 147.8 148.7 150.6 152.3 153.8 155.2 156.6 158.1 159.5 160.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 19 21 13 14 12 16 19 37 19 18 17 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 469 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 14. 15. 15. 15. 13. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/24/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/24/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY