* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932009 08/24/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 42 46 46 43 37 28 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 42 46 46 43 37 28 21 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 31 31 30 27 23 20 18 DIS SHEAR (KT) 7 8 8 6 6 7 3 4 10 7 16 18 22 SHEAR DIR 73 48 86 127 116 112 28 187 274 240 249 259 283 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.2 27.8 27.5 26.8 25.4 23.5 22.3 21.7 21.4 21.2 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 146 142 139 133 118 99 86 79 74 70 70 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -50.9 -51.3 -51.8 -50.9 -52.0 -51.5 -52.0 -51.8 -52.3 -52.6 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 76 74 71 69 73 74 71 67 62 59 54 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 8 6 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 54 46 45 48 50 61 47 28 -18 -34 -79 -74 -80 200 MB DIV 61 68 58 45 55 49 50 72 32 26 5 -31 -13 LAND (KM) 972 997 1022 1053 1092 1183 1229 1209 1221 1077 958 942 972 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.7 20.2 22.5 24.8 27.2 28.8 29.5 29.4 LONG(DEG W) 116.1 116.9 117.7 118.7 119.6 121.7 123.8 125.5 126.8 127.6 127.8 128.3 128.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 12 13 13 12 10 6 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 43 31 11 9 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 410 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 12. 15. 16. 16. 14. 13. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 21. 21. 18. 12. 3. -4. -12. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932009 INVEST 08/24/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932009 INVEST 08/24/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY