* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922009 08/24/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 36 44 52 56 61 67 71 75 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 36 44 52 56 61 67 71 75 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 26 31 36 41 48 56 63 SHEAR (KT) 18 19 22 10 1 5 6 9 14 6 8 11 17 SHEAR DIR 268 260 271 285 328 289 341 358 33 39 85 170 181 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 145 146 145 146 149 150 151 150 149 148 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 145 142 142 139 135 135 133 132 129 127 127 123 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 700-500 MB RH 64 63 60 62 62 58 61 56 60 54 57 54 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 0 -11 -16 -19 -53 -34 -43 -10 -21 -5 -24 -21 200 MB DIV 70 75 51 70 70 -5 4 -8 12 3 20 10 17 LAND (KM) 761 651 487 384 347 435 533 607 724 834 804 645 540 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.9 18.8 19.8 20.8 22.4 23.9 25.1 26.3 27.4 28.6 30.2 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 59.6 61.1 62.4 63.7 65.6 67.4 69.0 70.4 71.3 72.1 72.3 71.6 STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 16 16 14 12 10 9 8 7 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 63 68 68 65 58 59 65 45 34 35 31 20 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 790 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 24. 32. 36. 41. 47. 51. 55. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922009 INVEST 08/24/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 64.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922009 INVEST 08/24/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY