* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932009 08/24/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 37 46 56 67 76 81 89 101 110 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 27 27 37 47 58 67 72 80 91 100 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 23 23 24 32 41 52 65 79 94 108 119 SHEAR (KT) 4 6 7 5 7 4 13 7 2 3 6 5 4 SHEAR DIR 41 105 109 68 60 124 94 114 84 172 140 17 25 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.8 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 145 147 153 154 159 162 165 166 166 166 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 150 151 153 158 158 161 164 168 170 169 168 172 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 9 11 9 11 9 9 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 66 67 71 69 66 72 67 73 73 78 74 80 82 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 6 5 6 6 5 9 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR 59 58 46 37 23 22 5 12 3 2 7 20 67 200 MB DIV 60 57 68 40 32 22 13 28 -4 29 52 80 140 LAND (KM) 191 247 130 -35 -55 125 189 263 422 430 461 498 486 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.0 12.3 12.9 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 79.2 80.9 82.6 84.2 85.7 88.3 90.8 92.9 95.3 97.6 100.0 102.2 104.4 STM SPEED (KT) 21 17 16 15 14 13 11 11 12 11 11 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 25 30 35 39 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 24 CX,CY: -23/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 10. 18. 23. 29. 33. 37. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -2. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 26. 36. 47. 56. 61. 69. 81. 90. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932009 INVEST 08/24/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932009 INVEST 08/24/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY