* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942009 08/24/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 43 54 63 69 73 73 74 74 72 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 43 54 63 69 73 73 74 74 72 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 40 49 59 68 74 78 81 81 SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 7 8 4 2 3 4 10 8 13 16 SHEAR DIR 67 62 76 81 56 88 124 181 138 185 175 196 202 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 146 145 143 143 142 143 143 143 145 146 147 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 59 59 55 58 54 55 56 55 52 49 48 46 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 38 27 20 10 10 14 5 11 8 8 12 15 17 200 MB DIV 11 7 24 4 1 5 0 3 16 9 -8 0 7 LAND (KM) 1048 1081 1125 1146 1157 1211 1288 1371 1436 1521 1619 1774 1968 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.2 14.0 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 161.7 162.7 163.7 164.7 165.7 167.6 169.2 170.6 171.6 172.7 173.8 175.4 177.3 STM SPEED (KT) 16 11 11 11 11 9 8 6 6 5 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 61 59 56 56 60 61 72 75 79 75 68 73 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 340 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 18. 29. 38. 44. 48. 48. 49. 49. 47. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942009 INVEST 08/24/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 58.4 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942009 INVEST 08/24/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY