* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/24/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 51 51 54 57 60 63 64 64 63 62 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 51 51 54 57 60 63 64 64 63 62 V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 54 53 53 54 57 61 66 70 72 71 69 SHEAR (KT) 22 22 20 14 10 7 11 10 11 16 18 10 14 SHEAR DIR 59 77 91 87 80 59 57 44 7 352 345 320 320 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 139 138 138 136 137 139 140 141 140 139 138 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.6 -53.1 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 63 65 60 62 54 51 49 47 44 41 45 45 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 22 32 38 45 46 47 54 72 88 85 76 53 43 200 MB DIV -11 -3 18 30 20 20 20 30 30 20 32 9 -15 LAND (KM) 1126 1035 946 864 785 675 601 526 467 468 523 610 699 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.1 14.8 14.7 14.8 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 145.4 146.4 147.3 148.2 149.0 150.4 151.9 153.3 154.6 156.0 157.6 159.2 160.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 20 13 12 12 12 15 18 33 37 18 17 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/24/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/24/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY