* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP932009 08/24/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 45 52 55 53 48 40 30 23 15 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 45 52 55 53 48 40 30 23 15 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 42 42 40 36 31 26 22 18 SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 3 5 4 7 1 6 10 16 21 23 SHEAR DIR 33 54 127 86 35 45 55 331 296 277 275 290 304 SST (C) 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.5 26.7 25.4 23.8 22.6 22.1 21.9 21.8 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 144 141 139 131 118 102 89 83 79 75 75 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.9 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 71 72 73 72 74 73 67 61 54 48 45 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 13 13 11 10 8 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 49 43 47 51 53 54 44 33 -8 -22 -58 -61 -62 200 MB DIV 65 57 38 51 56 53 38 44 -2 -9 -17 -21 -12 LAND (KM) 1022 1082 1128 1158 1198 1247 1274 1271 1314 1279 1274 1265 1251 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.4 16.6 17.0 17.3 18.5 20.0 21.9 24.1 25.8 27.0 27.5 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.7 118.7 119.7 120.6 122.3 124.2 125.8 127.5 128.9 130.3 130.7 130.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 12 9 6 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 36 27 11 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 470 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -2. -4. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 22. 25. 23. 18. 10. 0. -7. -15. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP932009 INVEST 08/24/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 28% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932009 INVEST 08/24/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY