* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922009 08/25/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 26 29 36 44 52 56 61 66 70 72 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 26 29 36 44 52 56 61 66 70 72 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 23 26 31 36 42 48 54 59 SHEAR (KT) 20 23 11 7 8 6 4 14 13 9 11 13 20 SHEAR DIR 257 266 288 254 226 328 23 35 66 85 137 184 205 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 147 147 148 149 149 150 148 147 146 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 141 141 139 136 134 132 130 127 126 124 121 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.5 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.7 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 12 12 11 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 64 60 62 62 59 60 55 56 51 52 55 53 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -13 -14 -10 -22 -45 -34 -31 -15 -15 12 -39 -67 200 MB DIV 68 48 75 70 27 4 -6 19 11 20 16 15 -5 LAND (KM) 615 460 332 293 322 455 532 635 747 763 732 622 547 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.7 19.5 20.4 21.3 22.9 24.4 25.5 26.7 27.7 29.1 30.6 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 59.9 61.4 62.8 64.0 65.2 67.1 68.9 70.5 71.7 72.4 72.6 72.1 71.5 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 15 14 13 12 10 8 7 6 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 70 68 63 59 58 67 51 33 35 35 31 18 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 16. 24. 32. 36. 41. 46. 50. 52. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922009 INVEST 08/25/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922009 INVEST 08/25/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY