* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932009 08/25/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 31 36 44 55 67 74 82 87 94 102 V (KT) LAND 20 23 23 25 25 35 46 57 65 73 78 85 93 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 25 33 42 53 66 79 92 103 110 SHEAR (KT) 4 2 5 4 4 3 6 2 0 5 1 7 1 SHEAR DIR 93 96 55 62 138 144 112 264 284 174 193 252 317 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.2 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.5 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 151 156 163 168 170 172 172 172 172 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 146 147 153 158 164 168 171 172 172 172 172 172 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.9 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -51.8 -52.3 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 9 12 12 9 11 8 12 9 12 10 12 700-500 MB RH 70 73 72 67 67 68 69 74 71 76 74 78 75 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 5 5 7 7 9 8 12 15 850 MB ENV VOR 41 32 24 14 16 0 0 4 3 3 21 29 58 200 MB DIV 41 56 27 22 17 -2 31 13 34 69 64 82 145 LAND (KM) 215 107 -36 -113 -42 11 33 113 157 129 161 216 238 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.1 12.4 13.0 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.4 16.0 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 81.5 82.8 84.1 85.4 86.6 88.9 91.0 93.2 95.6 97.9 100.3 102.6 105.0 STM SPEED (KT) 18 13 13 13 12 11 10 11 12 11 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 31 35 38 20 28 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 23 CX,CY: -22/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 457 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -1. 3. 10. 18. 23. 28. 33. 38. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 35. 47. 54. 62. 67. 74. 82. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932009 INVEST 08/25/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932009 INVEST 08/25/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY