* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122009 08/25/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 45 48 53 56 51 45 37 28 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 45 48 53 56 51 45 37 28 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 40 41 43 44 43 39 34 29 24 21 17 SHEAR (KT) 10 6 7 5 4 9 2 11 6 9 14 24 21 SHEAR DIR 66 97 79 79 115 34 29 310 318 305 282 303 309 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.1 26.3 25.0 23.6 22.6 22.1 21.9 21.9 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 141 138 135 126 113 99 88 83 80 80 83 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 -50.7 -51.8 -51.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 72 73 75 75 76 78 73 67 62 54 49 44 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 13 13 13 13 14 11 10 8 6 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 43 39 43 43 45 32 17 -9 -23 -53 -52 -63 -53 200 MB DIV 61 56 58 57 66 38 24 5 -3 3 -9 -4 -19 LAND (KM) 1020 1056 1091 1114 1144 1206 1205 1229 1290 1291 1288 1366 1499 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.8 18.2 19.3 20.7 22.3 24.0 25.6 27.0 27.7 27.9 LONG(DEG W) 117.3 118.2 119.1 120.0 120.8 122.4 124.0 125.6 127.2 128.8 130.5 132.2 134.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 11 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 23 10 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 534 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 18. 21. 16. 10. 2. -7. -16. -23. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122009 TWELVE 08/25/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.9 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122009 TWELVE 08/25/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY