* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922009 08/25/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 36 46 52 60 65 71 73 77 81 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 36 46 52 60 65 71 73 77 81 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 28 29 29 32 36 42 49 57 65 72 77 SHEAR (KT) 23 19 12 12 5 4 6 11 6 3 15 11 19 SHEAR DIR 254 243 249 226 286 331 7 9 313 178 202 209 197 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 147 146 148 149 150 150 148 149 148 144 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 142 140 137 138 136 132 130 126 126 127 124 120 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 59 61 63 60 59 58 53 55 50 56 56 60 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 10 14 15 13 17 15 17 16 17 15 16 18 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -16 -11 -27 -51 -41 -59 -14 -18 2 -4 24 3 200 MB DIV 45 64 81 34 -10 16 6 23 12 38 21 32 10 LAND (KM) 447 345 317 359 444 533 666 789 875 780 672 648 802 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.9 20.8 21.7 22.5 24.2 25.7 26.9 28.1 29.2 30.8 32.7 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 61.5 62.9 64.2 65.2 66.2 68.1 69.6 70.7 71.3 71.5 71.1 69.7 67.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 14 13 13 11 9 7 6 7 10 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 69 62 60 56 60 61 37 38 32 25 19 16 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 19 CX,CY: -16/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 5. 5. 6. 5. 6. 4. 5. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 21. 27. 35. 40. 46. 48. 52. 56. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922009 INVEST 08/25/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 61.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922009 INVEST 08/25/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY