* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL932009 08/25/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 38 43 51 62 71 77 83 90 97 101 V (KT) LAND 25 26 30 34 39 47 58 67 74 79 86 93 97 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 33 37 46 56 67 80 91 102 109 114 SHEAR (KT) 2 4 4 6 5 9 6 3 6 8 7 5 6 SHEAR DIR 117 78 90 127 161 136 161 196 191 187 183 191 231 SST (C) 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 147 151 154 154 156 163 166 171 172 172 172 172 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 155 157 156 158 165 168 172 172 172 172 172 171 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 12 12 10 10 9 11 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 72 69 67 68 73 67 72 71 74 76 81 78 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 8 9 9 11 14 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 22 16 12 17 15 -5 4 1 -6 16 40 61 82 200 MB DIV 48 20 29 38 22 19 39 15 26 52 59 110 103 LAND (KM) -2 -74 12 91 122 161 232 279 281 334 383 410 491 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.5 12.8 13.2 13.5 14.0 14.6 15.3 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 83.9 85.3 86.6 87.8 89.0 91.4 93.5 95.9 98.4 101.0 103.4 105.6 107.6 STM SPEED (KT) 18 13 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 12 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 24 CX,CY: -23/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 18. 22. 27. 31. 35. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 26. 37. 46. 52. 58. 65. 72. 76. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL932009 INVEST 08/25/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 39% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL932009 INVEST 08/25/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY