* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922009 08/25/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 40 49 56 64 71 75 77 78 76 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 40 49 56 64 71 75 77 78 76 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 31 35 40 47 55 62 70 76 79 SHEAR (KT) 25 17 14 11 5 5 11 8 10 7 15 16 20 SHEAR DIR 239 229 229 247 340 358 329 289 255 235 219 211 218 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 149 150 151 152 149 148 147 144 141 138 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 140 139 139 138 134 129 124 122 121 118 117 115 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.5 -53.2 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 13 12 12 12 10 10 9 8 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 61 63 61 58 60 57 56 51 53 55 58 59 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 14 16 14 16 17 17 17 17 15 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -21 -37 -69 -64 -72 -54 -19 -9 -1 0 -1 0 200 MB DIV 52 67 40 -5 0 4 16 46 22 18 23 27 26 LAND (KM) 462 481 556 604 641 785 894 747 681 640 633 685 620 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.2 26.8 28.2 29.5 30.5 31.7 33.0 34.9 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 63.0 64.4 65.7 66.9 68.0 69.9 71.1 71.6 71.3 70.6 69.7 68.4 66.3 STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 15 13 12 10 8 6 6 7 9 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 47 53 57 56 50 38 34 25 20 28 20 17 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 20 CX,CY: -15/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 24. 31. 39. 46. 50. 52. 53. 51. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922009 INVEST 08/25/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 52.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922009 INVEST 08/25/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY