* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/25/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 55 56 58 59 60 60 59 57 54 52 V (KT) LAND 50 51 53 55 56 58 59 60 60 59 57 54 52 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 51 52 53 56 59 62 64 64 63 60 57 SHEAR (KT) 4 4 7 10 11 16 11 9 13 16 17 14 16 SHEAR DIR 95 61 39 42 33 34 15 6 342 327 338 334 306 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 138 138 138 140 142 142 141 140 139 139 141 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 59 54 54 53 52 51 48 50 48 46 45 44 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 45 41 36 45 50 42 48 52 46 23 9 -14 -35 200 MB DIV 26 18 12 1 0 18 18 10 -3 -13 -34 -26 -13 LAND (KM) 855 798 745 702 663 596 553 533 535 577 669 693 649 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.3 14.7 15.2 16.2 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 148.5 149.3 150.0 150.8 151.5 152.9 154.2 155.6 157.1 158.8 160.7 162.4 163.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 12 14 15 14 16 19 20 49 20 17 18 18 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. 2. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/25/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/25/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY