* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122009 08/25/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 47 48 49 44 37 29 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 47 48 49 44 37 29 22 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 44 45 45 43 38 32 27 23 20 17 15 SHEAR (KT) 5 5 5 4 8 5 13 9 12 11 15 16 26 SHEAR DIR 22 80 142 275 324 289 286 284 269 265 298 265 286 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.3 25.7 24.2 22.6 22.0 21.9 21.8 22.0 22.2 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 132 127 120 105 89 82 80 78 81 84 88 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -50.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 700-500 MB RH 74 77 73 73 73 69 64 56 48 42 40 34 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 13 14 13 13 10 9 7 5 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 49 52 55 53 38 26 -12 -24 -41 -55 -59 -50 -31 200 MB DIV 47 39 56 44 22 20 25 -6 -1 -13 -16 -20 -13 LAND (KM) 993 1036 1091 1133 1149 1135 1164 1199 1212 1273 1388 1530 1643 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.8 20.3 21.9 24.1 25.9 26.9 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 118.9 120.0 121.0 121.9 122.8 124.2 125.9 127.7 129.3 130.8 132.3 134.3 136.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 10 12 13 10 8 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -15. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 4. -3. -11. -18. -27. -31. -35. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122009 IGNACIO 08/25/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122009 IGNACIO 08/25/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY