* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922009 08/25/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 44 53 61 68 70 73 75 76 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 44 53 61 68 70 73 75 76 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 29 32 37 43 51 56 60 61 57 SHEAR (KT) 16 17 13 7 4 6 3 9 16 27 23 29 38 SHEAR DIR 230 229 258 296 347 325 346 252 193 209 216 232 238 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 26.1 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 150 151 152 150 147 145 145 143 143 118 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 139 139 138 137 130 125 122 121 121 122 104 81 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 8 5 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 64 62 57 58 58 51 55 53 61 65 71 67 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 17 15 17 18 16 18 17 19 19 19 20 24 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -36 -66 -57 -47 -70 -29 -38 -2 -23 5 -10 57 200 MB DIV 37 17 -3 14 23 -8 58 31 51 32 74 65 112 LAND (KM) 539 622 646 699 777 894 725 580 455 367 444 376 223 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 24.1 25.0 25.9 26.7 28.2 29.5 30.8 32.2 34.0 36.3 38.9 42.2 LONG(DEG W) 64.7 66.0 67.3 68.5 69.6 71.1 72.0 72.5 72.7 72.3 70.8 67.9 63.4 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 14 13 12 9 7 7 8 11 15 21 24 HEAT CONTENT 57 53 54 41 38 34 26 22 23 31 29 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 21 CX,CY: -14/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 19. 28. 36. 43. 45. 48. 50. 51. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922009 INVEST 08/25/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 48.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922009 INVEST 08/25/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY