* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/25/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 51 55 60 63 65 63 62 61 59 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 51 55 60 63 65 63 62 61 59 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 44 45 46 50 55 60 63 65 64 63 63 SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 8 10 13 13 9 17 14 15 11 14 SHEAR DIR 68 77 83 65 59 41 27 353 353 335 344 310 276 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 140 140 140 142 143 143 142 140 141 141 142 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 56 56 54 54 54 48 53 53 53 46 47 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 7 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 41 45 46 51 60 58 44 27 7 -18 -28 200 MB DIV 28 21 0 0 0 8 17 4 -8 -26 -31 -31 -8 LAND (KM) 876 816 763 723 684 633 591 587 620 695 835 864 910 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.8 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 148.7 149.6 150.5 151.3 152.0 153.4 155.1 156.6 158.2 160.1 162.6 164.8 166.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 7 8 8 7 9 11 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 18 19 19 21 45 52 27 27 48 58 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 18. 20. 18. 17. 16. 14. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/25/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/25/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY