* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122009 08/25/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 51 53 54 51 44 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 49 51 53 54 51 44 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 51 50 45 38 32 27 22 19 16 DIS SHEAR (KT) 3 5 10 10 11 13 15 17 17 24 23 24 23 SHEAR DIR 16 203 268 301 272 255 266 252 264 264 289 278 259 SST (C) 27.1 26.6 26.0 25.2 24.4 23.0 22.2 22.0 21.9 21.9 22.2 22.5 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 124 116 107 93 84 81 79 80 84 87 90 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.9 -51.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 700-500 MB RH 77 75 75 73 71 66 61 52 47 45 41 37 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 16 15 16 14 12 9 8 6 5 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 53 57 53 34 28 15 -15 -18 -20 -33 -30 -24 -18 200 MB DIV 34 48 37 28 23 43 4 2 -4 -11 -20 -16 -17 LAND (KM) 999 1041 1081 1085 1102 1165 1258 1236 1260 1363 1551 1695 1804 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.7 20.3 21.1 21.8 23.3 25.1 26.3 27.0 27.3 27.2 27.4 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 119.8 120.8 121.8 122.8 123.7 125.5 127.4 128.9 130.1 131.8 134.1 136.0 138.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 12 11 8 7 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -10. -12. -13. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -11. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 8. 9. 6. -1. -11. -21. -30. -40. -47. -51. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122009 IGNACIO 08/25/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122009 IGNACIO 08/25/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY