* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922009 08/26/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 54 58 65 72 80 84 85 90 83 73 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 54 58 65 72 80 84 85 90 83 73 V (KT) LGE mod 40 46 51 55 59 66 74 80 84 83 79 71 62 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 1 4 2 5 2 7 25 22 25 44 47 SHEAR DIR 233 249 20 16 101 53 289 226 221 249 247 254 285 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.3 27.3 25.3 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 150 152 151 149 148 146 144 132 113 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 135 135 135 132 128 128 127 126 117 102 88 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -53.5 -52.6 -53.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 12 11 11 11 10 9 7 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 59 57 58 53 53 51 54 63 69 64 64 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 14 17 19 18 19 19 20 22 22 30 28 24 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -47 -38 -26 -40 -27 -10 -3 6 -16 -20 -4 -20 200 MB DIV 5 1 24 23 5 5 37 38 65 66 76 57 50 LAND (KM) 514 524 565 631 700 784 710 573 390 410 457 387 433 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 24.0 24.7 25.4 26.1 27.3 28.6 30.3 32.6 35.2 38.1 40.7 42.9 LONG(DEG W) 66.7 67.8 68.9 69.8 70.7 72.1 73.1 73.5 73.2 71.4 67.8 62.7 55.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 11 11 10 8 8 10 13 18 22 27 29 HEAT CONTENT 60 60 47 36 33 34 42 33 24 22 10 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 16 CX,CY: -13/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 12. 14. 14. 13. 12. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 25. 32. 40. 44. 45. 50. 43. 33. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922009 INVEST 08/26/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922009 INVEST 08/26/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY