* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922009 08/26/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 53 56 62 67 74 74 75 73 71 66 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 53 56 62 67 74 74 75 73 71 66 V (KT) LGE mod 40 46 50 54 58 65 71 77 81 81 77 71 62 SHEAR (KT) 12 5 7 7 7 9 0 14 24 30 34 35 45 SHEAR DIR 255 346 57 24 358 43 279 189 211 228 224 212 243 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.2 25.6 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 150 151 151 151 151 150 148 144 142 114 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 135 134 134 133 131 131 130 128 124 123 101 88 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 6 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 55 53 56 55 63 62 65 59 59 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 15 15 14 14 12 13 11 13 12 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR -38 -39 -21 -36 -45 -22 -22 7 9 15 -24 35 26 200 MB DIV -10 11 12 -15 -7 39 37 73 26 43 23 39 10 LAND (KM) 477 517 568 622 645 644 557 521 324 270 443 385 314 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.4 24.9 25.4 25.9 26.8 28.2 30.0 32.2 34.5 36.7 39.3 42.0 LONG(DEG W) 68.5 69.6 70.6 71.4 72.2 73.6 74.6 75.1 74.9 73.2 70.5 67.1 61.8 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 10 9 8 8 9 10 12 14 17 21 24 HEAT CONTENT 57 51 42 40 38 45 46 40 45 32 31 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 11. 9. 7. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 22. 27. 34. 34. 35. 33. 31. 26. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922009 INVEST 08/26/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922009 INVEST 08/26/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY