* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/26/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 42 46 51 52 54 57 58 59 60 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 42 46 51 52 54 57 58 59 60 V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 39 39 40 43 47 50 52 54 56 59 61 SHEAR (KT) 9 13 15 17 15 17 15 20 16 14 13 12 11 SHEAR DIR 60 38 40 36 30 17 347 347 6 6 12 11 305 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 143 144 145 146 144 142 143 142 143 144 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 51 50 52 53 52 54 53 52 49 48 49 47 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 43 44 41 39 42 51 52 43 30 16 -8 -29 -36 200 MB DIV -2 2 -5 0 3 23 10 14 4 8 -11 -14 -19 LAND (KM) 809 783 761 742 731 691 675 710 810 941 1013 1062 1127 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.4 13.1 12.9 12.7 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.3 15.3 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 150.2 151.0 151.8 152.6 153.3 155.0 156.6 158.4 160.5 162.7 165.0 167.0 168.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 11 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 27 42 49 33 48 52 51 59 45 57 69 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 12. 14. 17. 18. 19. 20. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/26/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 34.2 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/26/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY