* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122009 08/26/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 43 41 34 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 43 41 34 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 42 39 33 28 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 10 13 20 21 17 20 24 29 25 34 SHEAR DIR 262 286 271 241 238 252 250 258 261 287 282 279 247 SST (C) 25.7 24.9 24.0 23.3 22.7 22.1 21.9 21.8 21.9 22.1 22.3 22.5 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 121 113 103 96 90 83 80 78 79 81 83 86 87 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 73 70 70 65 65 60 49 46 39 37 34 33 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 14 13 11 10 7 6 4 3 2 3 850 MB ENV VOR 39 21 14 5 -3 -30 -28 -32 -20 -34 -30 -21 -8 200 MB DIV 19 12 -5 10 17 24 7 2 -25 -14 -30 -20 -28 LAND (KM) 1060 1076 1107 1141 1186 1242 1214 1280 1364 1442 1480 1585 1659 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.5 22.2 23.0 23.8 25.5 26.8 27.3 27.5 27.9 28.2 28.6 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 122.0 123.1 124.1 125.1 126.0 127.8 129.2 130.7 132.0 133.3 134.6 136.2 137.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 12 10 8 6 6 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -13. -17. -18. -18. -19. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -8. -12. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -17. -17. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -4. -11. -19. -30. -39. -48. -58. -62. -64. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122009 IGNACIO 08/26/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.7 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122009 IGNACIO 08/26/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY