* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922009 08/26/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 45 48 53 60 67 69 70 76 75 73 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 45 48 53 60 67 69 70 76 75 73 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 44 46 52 59 66 70 71 69 67 61 SHEAR (KT) 9 4 4 6 9 1 6 17 22 25 24 31 44 SHEAR DIR 328 354 29 337 19 353 194 202 223 219 217 214 236 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.3 28.2 26.8 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 151 151 150 152 152 150 148 143 142 126 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 134 133 132 131 131 131 130 129 124 124 112 92 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 7 8 6 5 1 700-500 MB RH 60 59 56 52 55 57 55 58 63 58 58 56 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 17 16 16 15 14 14 13 12 12 18 18 21 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -24 -27 -36 -32 -7 -3 16 -6 -8 -25 -45 -50 200 MB DIV 12 36 1 2 15 22 46 40 36 3 35 23 39 LAND (KM) 540 583 624 617 613 555 495 540 411 457 609 511 362 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.1 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.8 28.0 29.8 31.8 33.9 36.1 38.9 42.0 LONG(DEG W) 70.0 70.9 71.8 72.6 73.3 74.5 75.2 75.1 73.9 71.3 68.8 65.6 60.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 9 8 7 7 6 8 10 13 15 17 22 25 HEAT CONTENT 49 41 41 40 42 50 53 40 31 22 39 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 808 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 1. 1. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 20. 27. 29. 30. 36. 35. 33. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922009 INVEST 08/26/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922009 INVEST 08/26/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY