* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/26/09 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 47 49 54 58 59 62 63 63 62 60 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 47 49 54 58 59 62 63 63 62 60 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 43 44 47 51 55 58 61 63 66 67 66 SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 13 16 14 20 18 12 7 12 14 15 SHEAR DIR 43 43 41 24 26 12 1 17 20 351 313 304 296 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 143 144 146 146 146 144 142 141 142 145 145 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 47 48 52 47 51 51 49 45 44 45 47 47 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 49 45 40 44 46 45 47 35 22 -4 -27 -45 -51 200 MB DIV 0 0 4 4 4 27 11 3 14 -16 -37 -24 -23 LAND (KM) 782 759 744 723 712 688 703 778 916 990 1073 1177 1303 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.3 13.0 12.9 12.7 12.7 12.9 13.3 13.7 14.3 14.8 15.7 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 150.9 151.6 152.3 153.1 153.9 155.6 157.7 160.0 162.4 164.6 166.6 168.8 171.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 22 34 48 42 22 51 55 60 45 54 67 75 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 14. 18. 19. 22. 23. 23. 22. 20. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/26/09 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/26/09 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY