* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL052009 08/26/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 44 47 51 57 60 65 67 64 56 47 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 44 47 51 57 60 65 67 52 39 35 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 44 46 52 57 61 63 58 44 41 37 SHEAR (KT) 4 4 7 8 4 11 17 30 35 50 58 68 81 SHEAR DIR 357 310 329 329 330 244 234 225 234 243 249 252 261 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.5 27.1 19.7 18.5 14.6 11.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 151 151 150 151 147 130 84 81 74 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 133 131 132 131 133 130 117 78 76 71 69 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 11 11 11 10 8 6 3 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 58 54 55 55 52 63 63 66 58 58 58 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 16 15 16 14 14 11 15 18 17 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -26 -28 -30 -24 -35 10 -4 53 105 122 73 71 200 MB DIV 22 9 3 15 53 34 64 34 110 88 65 52 20 LAND (KM) 578 632 639 664 613 566 430 226 268 143 40 -2 512 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.6 26.1 26.6 27.1 28.8 31.0 33.9 37.7 42.2 47.2 50.6 52.7 LONG(DEG W) 70.8 71.8 72.7 73.3 73.9 74.7 75.1 74.2 72.1 68.8 64.3 57.2 48.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 8 10 13 18 24 28 29 29 29 HEAT CONTENT 40 38 38 43 51 40 57 49 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 15. 15. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 7. 3. 0. -5. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -2. -5. -2. 0. -1. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 20. 25. 27. 24. 16. 7. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052009 DANNY 08/26/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052009 DANNY 08/26/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY