* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/26/09 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 45 49 52 56 58 61 60 61 61 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 45 49 52 56 58 61 60 61 61 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 44 47 50 53 55 58 61 64 66 SHEAR (KT) 13 16 15 16 15 13 20 15 16 7 9 13 6 SHEAR DIR 32 32 30 22 9 338 351 12 10 14 326 303 301 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 143 145 146 146 145 143 142 142 144 145 145 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 48 49 51 51 55 56 54 50 50 52 49 52 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 9 8 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 45 34 35 38 39 39 36 23 2 -12 -29 -42 -24 200 MB DIV -5 -5 -3 3 15 11 -6 -9 -14 -36 -20 10 32 LAND (KM) 801 773 754 729 715 690 716 816 950 1000 1092 1217 1370 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.0 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.8 14.5 15.3 16.3 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 151.0 151.8 152.5 153.4 154.2 156.0 158.3 160.6 162.9 165.1 167.4 169.7 172.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 22 34 50 30 22 51 56 59 44 58 69 77 73 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 16. 18. 21. 20. 21. 21. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/26/09 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.9 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/26/09 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY