* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL052009 08/27/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 52 54 60 65 68 75 73 67 59 47 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 52 54 60 65 68 75 61 56 46 34 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 50 53 56 62 68 71 68 56 46 41 39 SHEAR (KT) 7 5 4 1 6 10 19 32 41 53 66 73 80 SHEAR DIR 244 304 343 200 251 218 226 233 240 241 251 258 271 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.0 22.1 17.7 16.5 10.2 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 151 149 149 148 141 92 79 76 70 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 132 131 130 131 131 126 85 74 72 69 69 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.8 -52.7 -53.4 -53.0 -53.9 -54.2 -54.7 -53.4 -54.0 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 11 9 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 54 55 54 51 59 63 68 65 62 61 62 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 15 16 14 14 13 11 16 16 16 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -34 -29 -22 -29 -37 -24 -4 91 118 113 93 84 200 MB DIV 14 12 26 55 29 43 54 109 105 66 62 36 23 LAND (KM) 655 686 698 683 640 576 347 330 102 -7 66 240 874 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.2 26.7 27.4 28.0 30.0 32.8 36.4 41.0 45.5 49.6 52.4 54.0 LONG(DEG W) 71.2 72.0 72.7 73.2 73.7 74.1 73.6 72.1 69.6 65.5 60.0 52.2 42.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 12 17 22 26 27 28 29 30 HEAT CONTENT 35 35 39 48 49 40 31 20 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 7. 4. 0. -5. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 20. 23. 30. 28. 22. 14. 2. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052009 DANNY 08/27/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052009 DANNY 08/27/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY