* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * HILDA EP112009 08/27/09 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 27 27 31 34 38 41 46 47 47 48 V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 27 31 34 38 41 46 47 47 48 V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 25 25 24 24 25 26 27 29 31 34 37 SHEAR (KT) 13 16 18 18 16 15 19 19 17 7 1 5 7 SHEAR DIR 35 22 16 9 360 351 4 6 21 15 338 256 228 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 145 146 146 146 145 144 143 145 145 145 144 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 50 50 49 52 54 59 56 56 56 54 55 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 33 34 36 34 31 32 16 -7 -19 -33 -53 -61 -54 200 MB DIV 7 8 5 16 21 20 0 -14 -23 -22 3 8 65 LAND (KM) 809 774 746 727 719 717 759 889 1058 1150 1259 1368 1476 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.5 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.3 13.9 15.0 16.2 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 151.3 152.1 152.9 153.8 154.6 156.5 158.8 161.3 164.0 166.6 169.2 171.3 173.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 9 10 12 13 13 13 13 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 48 49 23 22 54 58 54 50 64 76 83 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. 1. 4. 8. 11. 16. 17. 17. 18. ** 2009 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112009 HILDA 08/27/09 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 Range: 46.6 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 Range: 4.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.2%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112009 HILDA 08/27/09 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY