* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * DANNY AL052009 08/27/09 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 56 59 64 65 73 74 68 57 47 38 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 56 59 64 65 73 74 54 42 32 23 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 57 59 64 67 66 56 43 39 36 35 SHEAR (KT) 13 11 8 12 11 20 31 36 52 60 74 83 57 SHEAR DIR 297 304 281 262 245 223 238 235 246 258 269 266 266 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.1 24.3 16.8 17.9 12.5 11.3 9.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 149 150 148 148 142 105 77 79 71 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 130 129 129 128 130 127 96 73 73 69 68 68 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -54.0 -53.7 -55.4 -55.9 -55.1 -54.5 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 10 8 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 58 58 54 55 65 72 72 68 61 62 70 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 16 16 15 15 11 16 20 16 11 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -33 -22 -26 -42 0 -12 67 50 15 10 38 84 200 MB DIV 3 18 48 36 42 69 66 164 105 58 47 15 6 LAND (KM) 784 763 702 675 594 377 236 162 6 67 96 605 1147 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.7 28.2 29.0 29.8 32.0 35.4 39.8 44.7 48.5 50.9 53.2 55.3 LONG(DEG W) 71.7 72.4 73.1 73.6 74.1 74.2 73.3 70.9 67.1 61.6 54.5 46.8 38.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 9 10 14 21 26 27 26 26 26 26 HEAT CONTENT 36 40 46 38 38 36 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -8. -14. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. 0. 3. 0. -5. -5. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 15. 23. 24. 18. 7. -3. -12. ** 2009 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052009 DANNY 08/27/09 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 16.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.0%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052009 DANNY 08/27/09 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY